Economic Roar in China May Be Too Strong
posted on
Mar 08, 2010 08:36AM
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The Year of the Tiger is off to a roaring economic start. Now economists are gauging whether China's momentum may be too strong for the global good. A raft of economic data are expected out of China this week. One of the most closely watched figures will be the consumer-price index, expected to be released at 9 p.m. EST on Wednesday. Carl Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics, estimates China's CPI rose 2.7% in February from a year earlier, faster than January's 1.5% rise. "Overall, you will be looking at a picture of strong retail sales, strong industrial production and strong investment figures," he says. But with that will come "some acceleration in CPI." U.S. investors and policy makers, says Mr. Weinberg, "will get agitated." Inflation could raise the prospect of an interest-rate increase in China, which could raise borrowing costs as well as export prices for foreign consumers. Still, the impact might be subdued because of still-tepid demand in the West. Fast-rising debt levels could be more worrisome. In light of the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe and the U.S. government's huge debt, investors want assurance that Asia's debt—public and private—remains under control. "The extent to which growth has been financed with debt gives you an idea of how sustainable it is," says Robert Horrocks, co-manager of Matthews Asian Growth and Income Fund. Though accelerated lending might be welcome in the U.S., in China it would be seen as a sign of overheating, he says. Also, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, is expected to report new loans extended by banks. Lending by the country's four largest state-owned banks, which account for nearly half of all loans, contracted 39% in February from the previous month, according to local media reports. That is largely because of orders from the government to the banks to scale back loans. Still, economists doubt Beijing is willing to put on brakes that could cost jobs and further social instability. And that is what concerns investors. Says Nina Wu, portfolio manager of Dreyfus Greater China Fund: "The world doesn't want to see one year of extremely fast growth." Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.comBy Carolyn Cui