http://seekingalpha.com/article/191889-the-vix-indicates-an-imminent-move-down

The VIX isn’t infallible. It can be difficult to make exact predictions from its charts. However, it tends to be accurate in a gross sense. When the VIX goes up the market usually goes down, and vice versa. If you look at the chart of the VIX and the chart of the SPY over the last two years, you can get a good idea of how good the correlation is... and it is good! The charts are below.

The 2 year SPY chart:

Click to enlarge

The 2 year VIX chart:

Click to enlarge

Right now the VIX is near one of its long term bottom support points. This likely means it will soon make a demonstrable move upward. In other words, equities should move downward demonstrably. Of course, there is no scientific pinpointing of such a turn. A ballpark turn is usually the best you can do. We currently seem to be in the ballpark.

It never hurts to have a few other things that might indicate a turn. The recent warning of a likely bad jobs number by Larry Summers might be considered a reason for a turn. The Williams %R and the Slow Stochastics indicators show that the SPY is overbought in the near term. These may indicate an imminent turn downward.

The ECB and BoE likely leaving rates unchanged Thursday morning may pressure the Euro and the GBP downward. If the USD Index moves upward as a consequence, it will tend to pressure commodities and commodity stocks to the downside.

Plus the recent Euro bounce upward due to the hopeful bailout of Greece took at least a minor blow to the gut. Even after Greece made its most recent cuts in compliance with the EU demands, German Chancellor Merkel said the meeting Friday with the Greek PM will not result in a definitive statement of imminent aid to Greece. Chancellor Merkel is being pressured by the German populace not to bailout Greece. The Greek PM will meet with the French President a couple of days afterwards. We may have to wait to see how this all plays out. An eventual bailout seems likely. Meanwhile the market could move down on the uncertainty. The market hates uncertainty!

This is all speculation, but it is knowledgeable speculation. If more ducks line up, the chances for a good kill are increased.