GOP Victory Could Energize Wall Street

by Rick Ackerman on January 19, 2010 4:08 am GMT · 13 comments

Traders should brace for a celebration on Wall Street Wednesday if Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown wins Teddy Kennedy’s seat in the U.S. Senate. A Brown victory in Tuesday’s special election would destroy the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and with it President Obama’s damn-the-torpedoes effort to steer the country hard-left. Derailing the Democrats’ machine would come as good news to Wall Street, since there is probably no area of investment opportunity that is not being eyed as a source of new tax revenues by Congressional liberals. Investors aside, the entire nation could breathe a sigh of relief if Brown is able to make good on his promise to stop the trillion-dollar healthcare boondoggle from becoming law. He has campaigned heavily on this issue, although the election will offer a broader referendum on the policies of Mr. Obama and a Democrat Congress run amok.

As of Monday evening, nearly all pollsters gave Brown the edge, which averaged around six percentage points. But Democrats were working feverishly at the eleventh hour to turn things around, manning the phone banks and ringing doorbells, and the election was deemed too close to predict. Just a month ago, few would have imagined Brown had even a remote chance of capturing a seat that has been a Kennedy fiefdom for nearly 60 years. Massachusetts is among the very bluest states, and Brown’s ability to stir things up is clear evidence that the voters, including leftists who see him as insufficiently “progressive,” are in outright revolt against Mr. Obama.

It remained to be seen whether a near-miss by Brown would cause enough Congressional Democrats to switch their votes on health care to scuttle the bill. Up till now, Democratic Party leaders have appeared to accept the likelihood that fallout from passage of the hugely unpopular bill – it is supported by only a third of the voters — would cost some Democrats their seats in 2010. But the mere possibility of a Republican victory in Massachusetts must be scary to many Democratic incumbents, since it is such a political aberration. Exit polls will not likely tell us enough on Tuesday to affect the markets, but by mid-evening there should be enough information to drive index futures one way or the other. If Brown looks like the winner, it will be the first glimmer of hope and change that investors have seen since Mr. Obama took office. [Click here for a tangentially related story: “Sen. Ben Nelson Booed Out of a an Omaha Pizza Parlor”.]

Another idea I read.: Lately we've seen a lot of 'sell the news'. So I am forced to wonder if we rally today as folks anticipate a Brown win and tomorrow we get a 'sell the news' reaction if he does win.

Guess all bases are covered. LOL