Zpring thanks for the bmo report

Red Flags: Early Fed Move, Lower Dollar and Inflation Concerns, More Risk Appetite
Higher interest rates, ETF selling and specs key risks for gold.
Just as there is a case to be made for gold performing better than currently expected, there are credible scenarios that could derail the gold price.
An early and aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve represents one of the biggest risks to gold prices. This would remove two key reasons why investors typically buy gold: inflation and U.S. dollar worries. Higher rates would no doubt cool inflationary expectations and would be supportive of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, higher yields would reduce liquidity and increase the opportunity cost to hold a zero yielding asset such as gold.
An abrupt end to ETF buying by investors (Fig 22) could also move gold prices sharply to the downside. Concerns surrounding the dollar and inflation could be a set of catalysts that reduces investor impetus to buy gold ETFs, thus increasing available gold. ETF gold assets have done much to lift gold in the Higher interest rates are another reason that investors may want less gold exposure in ETFs. Our final scenario would follow a systematic increase in investor risk appetite. This could drive investors into equities, which traditionally generate better returns, and away from ETFs.
Strong growth of speculator interest in gold has been a great contributor to the price rally in 2009. Conversely, a move away from an aggressive long stance toward the shorts could cause great damage to the gold price. In summary, an aggressive and early Fed tightening, a higher U.S. dollar, reduced inflation expectations and a growth in risk appetite are all possible reasons that could drive investors to short gold.