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Message: copper run may be in jepordy...china exporting stock pile

copper run may be in jepordy...china exporting stock pile

posted on Nov 23, 2009 11:02PM
China October Copper Exports Jump 73%; Imports Tumble (Update3)

By Bloomberg News

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Refined copper exports by China, the world’s largest consumer, jumped to the highest level in 14 months in October as strong overseas prices encouraged outbound shipments. Imports declined for the third time in four months.

Exports reached 18,508 metric tons last month, the customs office said in an e-mailed statement today. That’s up 73 percent from September and the highest since August 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Inbound shipments fell 40 percent to 169,374 tons in October, customs data showed.

Higher prices in London compared with domestic rates have lead to increased exports after copper, used in pipes and power cables, doubled this year as China’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus spending, state stockpiling and a lack of scrap material boosted imports to a record.

“Companies have been attempting to ship their copper stocks to London Metal Exchange warehouses abroad because of higher overseas prices,” Zhao Kai, an analyst at Jinrui Futures Co. said today. Chinese exports of the metal are “more likely to relieve pressure on domestic prices than to send London prices lower” amid a global recovery, Zhao added.

Xi’an Maike Metal International Group, a top Chinese copper trader, said earlier this month it has had to re-route some bonded copper to LME warehouses in South Korea because the company was unable to find buyers in China. A bonded zone holds imported goods before the duty has been paid.

Imports Decline

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded 2 percent higher at $6,982 a ton at 3:10 p.m. in Singapore and Shanghai futures rose 2.5 percent to close at 55,020 yuan ($8,058) a ton. Buying from overseas to sell in China incurs losses of about 1,244 yuan a ton after accounting for the country’s 17 percent value added tax, according to Bloomberg calculations.

“The decline in China’s imports has long been expected because of prices and is likely to continue for a couple more months,” Wang Lei, an analyst at Haitong Futures Co. said from Shanghai today. “The gain in exports is good for the domestic market as it eases a supply gut.”

About 57 percent of October’s copper exports went to South Korea and 28 percent to Singapore, today’s customs data showed. Inventories in LME warehouses in South Korea, the closest location to China, have surged more than 75-fold since July to the highest since September 2008.

Inventories

“There hasn’t been much increase in inventories in America and Europe, as compared to Asia’s gains, which is in line with the expectations that demand from the developed world is improving,” Wang said.

Refined copper imports surged 149 percent to 2.7 million tons in the first 10 months of the year, customs data showed.

China may hold as much as 350,000 tons of copper in bonded warehouses; 150,000 tons in the Shanghai area, including in exchange-monitored warehouses; 235,000 tons at the State Reserve Bureau, which maintains government holdings; and 200,000 tons with fabricators and private investors, Xi’an Maike’s general manager of the copper department Luo Shengzhang, said in an interview Nov. 9.

Imports of aluminum tumbled 78 percent to 25,950 tons in October from the previous month and shipments of lead halved to 2,950 tons, customs said.

--Li Xiaowei. Editor: Richard Dobson, Tan Hwee An

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