What I See As The Coming Nickel Shortage
posted on
Nov 28, 2008 08:35AM
The Company has three main projects: a PGE project in Montana's Stillwater District; a copper project in California's historic Moonlight Copper Mining District; and a nickel-copper-cobalt-PGE project in Ferguson Lake, Nunavut.
This may take a couple of years but I see Nickel being unable to keep up with demand when the economies turn around. The mothballing of projects happens all the time but put that together with the ever invcreasing consumption in the developing countries make for big future shortages.
A tabulation of announced nickel mine and plant closures and deferrals gives some idea of the fallout from the collapse in the world nickel price.
Author: Reuters
Sharp falls in nickel prices and demand from the key stainless steel sector have forced several producers to curb output or defer projects.
The table below attempts to quantify the potential size of the cutbacks announced at each stage of the production chain.
As a general rule the figures assume that most curtailments currently in place are maintained through 2009.
Project deferrals, some of which will also have an impact on next year's production, are also detailed below the table.
Operation, Company, Country, 2009 loss, ('000 T)
MINE
Blair, Australian Mines, Australia, 2.0
Cawse, Norilsk, Australia, 4.5
Copernicus, Panoramic, Australia, 4.4
Various, Mincor, Australia, 5.0
Waterloo, Norilsk Nickel, Australia, 10.0
Silver Swan
Lockerby, First Nickel, Canada, 2.0
Lac des Isles, N.Am Palladium, Canada, 1.5
Levack, FNX Mining, Canada, 5.0
McWatters, Liberty, Canada, 4.0
Redstone
Shakespeare, Ursa Major, Canada, 4.0
Hitura, Belvedere, Finland, 2.0
Trojan, Bindura Nickel, Zimbabwe, 5.0
Shangani
SMELTERS
Sorowako, PT Inco Indonesia, 15.0
REFINED/FENI
Jinchuan, Jinchuan, China, 20.0
Pomalaa, Antam, Indonesia, 5.0
Ufaleynickel, Ufaley, Russia, 14.0
PROJECT DEFERRALS
* Fox Resources (FXR.AX) postpones Sholl B2 nickel project to 2009. Originally due on-stream H2 2008. Deposit contains 32,000 tonnes of nickel.
* Minara Resources (MRE.AX) defers heap leach expansion at Murrin Murrin in Australia. Would have increased firm's output by around 8,000-10,000 tonnes of nickel by end-2009.
* Vale (VALE5.SA) defers Onca Puma project in Brazil. Will first start in July 2009, with second production line due by Jan. 10. Ultimately to produce 58,000 tpy of nickel in ferro-nickel. Previously expected to start up in H1 2009.
* HudBay's (HBM.TO) Fenix mine and ferro-nickel project in Guatemala, with initial 22,000 tpy capacity, to be delayed. Most recently expected on-stream Q4 2010.
* Sherritt's (S.TO) Ambatovy project in Madagascar could be delayed. Was due on-stream in 2010, reaching 60,000 tpy by 2012.
* Sherritt suspends about $220 million in spending at its Moa nickel operations in Cuba and at Fort Saskatchewan refinery in Canada. Phases II and III were expected to raise capacity at Fort Saskatchewan by 12,000-15,000 tpy.
*Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T)may delay start of its Taganito project in the Philippines. The 30,000 tpy plant was to start operations in 2012.
*Russian Nickel Company puts on hold its 10,000 tpy Altai nickel project in Russia.
(Karen Norton; edited by David Evans)