Re: October
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posted on
Oct 09, 2013 10:50AM
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Myth #1: One of the most discussed themes in market history has to do with October--specifically, that October is the month of market crashes.
Truth: Unlike a simple myth, there's a lot of truth to the "October crash" crowd. The 1929 and 1987 implosions remain forefront in investors' minds, but there have also been numerous other October wipeouts, including the 550-point Dow drop in 1997, the 1998 Russian Ruble/Long-Term Capital Management debacle, and, of course, last year's acceleration of financial panic from late September.
But as we know, the market is a contrary animal, and it's succeeding in that respect once again. As it turns out, October's history is nearly the exact opposite of what most investors believe!
Since 1958, October is actually the sixth-best month, right in the middle of the pack, with a 0.9% average gain for the S&P 500. (For the record, September and February are the two worst months of the year, on average.) Sixty percent of all Octobers have finished on the positive side of the ledger.
Moreover, instead of a month that ushers in crashes, October is actually a month that ends them. According to Stock Trader's Almanac 2009, October has marked the end of the 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987 (the decline actually started in August of '87), 1990, 1998 and 2002 bear markets. In my opinion, it also marked the end of the 2008 collapse, as the broad market bottomed in October (when 88% of the NYSE hit new 52-week lows).
Also, looking ahead, the months of November, December and January are three of the four best months of the year (April is the other). Thus, far more often than not, October is a month to buy, not sell!