posted on
Mar 16, 2010 10:23PM

Welcome To The Spider Resources HUB On AGORACOM
First Explorer at the "Ring of Fire" and presently drilling on the "BIG DADDY" Chromite/Pge's jv'd property...yet we were robbed

Message: Re: Good luck
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out before someone has the opportunity to gather/accumulate a ton of shares for a takeover as it would give us a better idea of what our tonnage then is worth.
Actually, this is not always a good way to look at it. If you really believe in your company, then the longer the wait, the better. IF a takeover bid is in the works, then the more shares belonging to other people that get sucked up, the better (to a point - ie. the takeover margin).
But if the difference in the next few weeks is between a potential purchaser sucking up 35% of the shares and sucking up 40% of the shares, and you've held on to your shares, then it's potentially better for them to have reaped more. If they've got a fixed amount in mind in their war chest, and they have to spread it among fewer shares that are still outstanding, the believers who held onto their shares will be rewarded with a potentially higher offer price.
Of course, there are caveats, such as having met the required percentage for a takeover. If the magic number is 2/3rds plus 1, then the difference between 45% outstanding and 35% outstanding is significant - in the latter case, only about 3% (of total float) of outstanding shares need to agree to tender, whereas in the the first scenario, about 13% need to agree.
So basically, when you are further away from the magic number, letting a few million other outstanding helps you. Only when you get closer to the finish line AND when voting matters does the smaller retail float work against you.
However, having said that, a solid 43-101 would be great.
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