I don't know about base metals. I tend to use the LME Warehouse Stocks as indicators of demand vs supply. Although it's not a perfect indicator, it usually tells you which base metals are most likely to go up in price.

At the moment, my base metals top five would be 1. Lead, 2. Zinc, 3.Copper, 4. Aluminium, 5. Nickel. But precious metals still look far more favourable to me. Compare base metals warehouse stocks being at the highest in five years with producers of gold coins and bars having to work in three shifts per day, six days a week, whilst still not being able to cope with demand...