An Academic Exercise
posted on
Jun 09, 2008 05:14PM
First Explorer at the "Ring of Fire" and presently drilling on the "BIG DADDY" Chromite/Pge's jv'd property...yet we were robbed
Ok, so I was batting this around the office this afternoon with a couple of Captains.
We'll call this Ex Reversing Shares.
Given (fact): The market is fickle. The market is forgetful. The market acts like a mob. And the market is currently very jittery. But majors still have an eye on this area play.
Situation (fact): 300 million shares O/S, SP at 6.5 cents. $4.5 million in the banks. JV properties throughout the ROF, total involvement is second only to Noront. Drills have been back to functioning for about a week now. ActLabs of TB is up to capacity, returning assays in 3-4 weeks (they say 2-3, but there is some argument of chromium taking longer).
Events (exercise data): June 20, 2008. Instead of waiting until some point before the end of the year, the BoD immediately does a 10:1 reverse split, but explains that this was done to reduce the float available (or some other reason, but the idea is that they do a very good job explaining their motive). Typically, the market hammers the stock, and by end of the month, it drops 30%.
In the "situation" above, based on actual facts, we are currently trading at about 2:1 to our book value, which is pretty much currently based on our bank account and an equal amount thrown in for the deposits we've deliniated, but not fully explored. Under the "events" section, the market thumps us down to trading at 1.4:1 to book value.
By 20 June, SPQ et al will have been drilling for about 3 weeks. Starting the first week of July, assay results could start coming back. After taking time to gather the numbers, Neil Novak presents an easy to read news release, stating that we have drilled into an OK deposit, which shows good mineralization, and say 3% nickel value (all metals included). He also states that drilling continues, that there are another 7 anomolies on the JV to go, and it is all done in a positive, easy-to-read-but-fact-packed manner.
Question: What does the market do?
Note: Keep in mind that all of this has been done without a news release on drilling progress for us, or anyone else in the region. Remember: A rising tide lifts all ships. Should anyone else have a further hit within the region, all bets are off and we could all be off to the races. And since everyone is drilling right now, there should be a steady stream of releases coming up this summer.