Cambridge Conference - McFaulds & Spider
posted on
Oct 22, 2007 12:10PM
First Explorer at the "Ring of Fire" and presently drilling on the "BIG DADDY" Chromite/Pge's jv'd property...yet we were robbed
I attended the Cambridge Conference today in Toronto and I sat in on John Kaiser's presentation titled "Is McFauld's Shaping Up into a Great Canadian Area Play." Here's some of what I took in:
John began his presentation with this statement: "I have never seen a set of conditions so ripe - not in 10 years. The McFauld's area is, however, not yet world class."
He has seven (7) criteria to help assess whether McFaulds is the next Great Canadian Area Play:
1) Strong Value Potential? [potentially YES]
2) Element of Surprise? [YES: Noront's #5]
3) Did the "Discovery junior" (i.e., NOT) get it all? [No. This is good]
4) Peer juniors have land position? [Yes. 12 peers have claims]
5) Rags to Riches story? [potentially YES]
6) Sharing of Info among Insiders? [YES. Numerous examples]
7) Market Value of the Discovery [UNKNOWN?]
It is the last criteria which is critically important. It will take some time and some drilling to assess all of this - up to 18+ months However, John noted the Noront's hole #1 had a rock value of $790/ton (greater than Voisey Bay); Noront's hole #5 had a rock value of $2500/ton; and in hole #5 there was a three meter interval valued at $5800/ton!!!
At this point in time John said that the market value of the discovery can be loosely valued at $1-$2 billion. In order to become the next Great Canadian Area Play, it must be valued above $5 billion. (Voisey's Bay is valued at $30-$60 billion.)
I believe he said that based on the $2 billion value, SPIDER should have an implied value of $232 million. Therefore, based on the number of outstanding shares, SPIDER is strongly undervalued. In fact, John noted that he thought Noront was overvalued; but a few minutes later said that if the future drill holes deliver, the upside of NOT was a 3 or 4 bagger.
DRILLING IS THE KEY!!! The ore body is irregular - there may be numerous bodies including numerous ovoids - and it will take up to 18+ months to delineate the discovery. However, all of the juniors are sharing data. Since the costs of working in the James Bay Lowlands are very high, the juniors need to share this too! And they're doing some of this e.g., TDEM survey. Clearly, a good drill result for one junior will help the rest.
Finally, the geophysics is now being done right. PATIENCE for the investor will be key. To my way of thinking, the downside risk is minimal; the upside potential is strong. However, before you invest, do you own "due diligence".
P.S. I bought in again today.
Snug