No more them and us, with a farewell to American supremacy -- China to be biggest beneficiary of change, with wealth moving from West to East and nations competing for scarce resources, writes Julian Borger

The view of the world presented by the United States's leading intelligence organization, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), lacks the black and white, us and them, good and evil clarity of the Bush years. It is a place of competing centers of power, scarce resources and countless potential shocks to the system.

Most importantly, in a conclusion likely to be contested by Washington's remaining neo-conservatives, the NIC report declares the end of American supremacy.

'A less dominant power'

"By 2025 the international system will be a global multipolar one with gaps in national power continuing to narrow between developed and developing countries," says the NIC report, entitled A Transformed World.

That is a dramatic shift away from the "unipolar moment" the United States was said to enjoy after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. That moment has now passed, the NIC concludes. Barack Obama's Democrats claim it was squandered by the hubris of the Bush administration. But whatever the cause, they are stuck with the consequences.

The US's loss of clout relative to the rest of the world will be military as well as economic. The US may continue to field the world's most formidable military force in 2025, but the NIC warns future commanders­ in chief that "advances by others in science and technology, expanded adoption of irregular warfare tactics by both state and non-state actors, proliferation of long-range precision weapons, and growing use of cyber warfare attacks increasingly will constrict US freedom of action".

The rise of China
The biggest winner in the coming­ multipolar age will be China, according to the report. "China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country," it predicts. On present trends China will have the world's second largest economy by 2025 and could well be the largest importer of natural resources and the biggest polluter. It will be a leading military power, with a considerable navy to protect the sea lanes that deliver its raw materials, and at the same time wield hi-tech asymmetric tools.

A US congressional panel claimed last month that China was already practising its cyber warfare skills.