New report from Roskill analyses antimony supply and demand worldwide
Decades of market instability for the main minerals and metals produced by China appear to be finally over. Boom and bust manipulation of markets and prices through alternate dumping of supplies and withdrawal from the market of such commodities as tungsten, tin and antimony had all but destroyed mine output and development in competing countries. The new report from market analysts Roskill, notes that the extent to which it had ravaged Chinas own mineral resources through over-exploitation, high-grading, damage to mine workings and loss of life was apparently only recently recognised by Chinese authorities.
The Economics of Antimony (12th Edition, 2007) explains that the widespread mine shutdowns and investigations that followed led to wide-ranging policy reforms aimed at resource conservation, orderly development, mine safety, environmental protection and value-added further processing, all controlled by quotas and licensing of mining, smelting and exporting. As with everything the Chinese do in the antimony industry, the changes had worldwide effect. Prices rose from the 40 year low of less than US$1,000/t in August 2001, to the US$5,300 to US$5,400/t level as of mid 2007. Moreover, a number of factors not present during past buoyant price periods indicate that the recovery will endure.
The impact of China on the world antimony industry China is now the largest importer of ores and concentrates, and its own domestic demand has also become the worlds largest. This solid foundation for the antimony industry has reawakened interest in antimony resources in Australia, North America, Latin America, Russia and elsewhere, and new projects are under development. Cambrian Mining plcs Costerfield, Australia project began production in January 2006 and with the refurbished Straits Hillgrove Gold project in New South Wales going forward, Australia will be producing over 12,000tpy antimony metal equivalent.
The fact that mine production outside of China will be required to meet future demand ensures that higher-cost operations, the very ones that were closed because of price deterioration in the past, will be maintained. Comparing the future supply situation with forecast demand indicates a near balance in supply and demand. As a result, Roskill expects antimony prices to rise to US$6,000/t during 2007 and to remain at or around this level to 2010.
Markets for end-use products are strong
Flame retardants account for about 70% of primary antimony demand and 90% of the demand for antimony trioxide. More stringent flammability standards and safety legislation, together with increased demand for plastics and IT-related products, will result in higher demand for flame retardants. World demand for antimony trioxide in this market is forecast to rise by 7.5% annually from and estimated 106,000t in 2004 to 152,000t by 2009.
The highest rates of growth are forecast for industrialising Asian countries, particularly China, where world production of electronic and other products is becoming increasingly concentrated. Although more stringent flame retardant requirements will increase demand in Europe and North America, these markets are already mature and more and more of the manufacturing base is being shifted to South East Asian countries. Asian manufacturers will therefore also be obliged to meet the higher standards for goods shipped to western markets.
Production of antimony trioxide
Production of antimony trioxide is forecast to continue to grow in response to rising demand for flame retardants in various products and for catalysts in PET production, although not as quickly as the end-use products because of possible inroads by competitive formulations and reductions in unit requirements. The worlds largest producer, Hsikuangshan Shanxing Antimony Co. Ltd expanded its capacity from 24,000tpy to 40,000tpy in 2004, and produced an estimated 35,000t in 2006. The companys new owners, Hunan Nonferrous Metals Co., plan further expansion and integration into formulation of flame retardants.
As with the US industry, Frances two producers have combined under a single company, Sudamin, and production has declined from the 12,000tpy level of the late 1970s to 7,500t in 2006. Campines production in Belgium also fell, from 12,000t in 2001 to 9,625t in 2005.
