david morgan on silver
posted on
May 03, 2010 06:48PM
SSO on the TSX, SSRI on the NASDAQ
david morgan was interviewed by the gold report:
TGR: When is the best time to get into silver and in what capacity?
DM: From the standpoint of the actual metal itself, any time is the right time as far as I'm concerned. You don't have to worry about market timing. I mean, $18 silver is obviously more than it was 10 years ago when you could probably get it at around $5. Again, I believe it's going far higher. It's something tangible, something real and something outside the financial system. When you own silver coins or bars or both, you actually have real money that's recognized worldwide. If you own the real thing, don't worry too much about the price. Buy the real thing. That's where you start your precious metals investing.
TGR: Why is there so much concern about the silver-to-gold ratio?
DM: I think that too much emphasis is put on the ratio. It's a metric that many follow to value the silver price relative to gold. It's useful in trading between the two metals, which I have taken advantage of a few times during this bull market. It's something that can get overblown and no one knows what the correct ratio is.
When you get silver really moving and the euphoric panic part of the market engages, it tends to really move faster than gold because it's a smaller market and you have a lot of money moving into the market. That's where you see silver overtake gold on a percentage basis. So we could be 60-to-1, 50-to-1, 40-to-1 and stay 40-to-1 for a long time. Then when then market goes into this panic buying mode we could go from 40-to-1 to 20-to-1 and then 10-to-1, as an example. That whole process from a 40-to-1 ratio to a 20-to-1 ratio might take two to three months. Again, is there an exact perfect ratio for silver to gold? No there isn't. The ratio does suggest that silver is still undervalued relative to gold.
TGR: Do you have a timeline for when silver may overtake gold?
DM: I don't have, but I'll be consistent. I've been asked this before and the answer has been probably 2012-ish. If you look at some of the analysts work, they put timelines at sometime between 2011 and 2016. Basically, if you forecast, you should put a price and no timeline or time and no price. That way you can't get cornered. Who wants that? That's no value to anybody. But a guess is a guess. I don't think you're going to see a really big move in the metals until 2012 or later. However, I do expect both gold and silver to make new nominal highs this year and silver to outperform gold by 30%.