Cambridge House Phoenix Silver Summit 2010: Silver Review and Outlook
posted on
Feb 17, 2010 02:41PM
SSO on the TSX, SSRI on the NASDAQ
ted butler posted his comments from the phoenix silver summit:
I can’t guarantee to you that Gary Gensler will persuade the Commission to institute legitimate position limits in silver, including cracking down on the concentrated short position of the big US commercial banks. I can guarantee you that if the CFTC instituted common sense speculative position limits and exemptions to silver; the manipulation would end at that precise moment. I can tell you that Gensler has brought us, intentionally or not, to the brink of the silver resolution. So has the President of the United States. In his speech two weeks ago, President Obama pledged to curtail the proprietary and speculative trading by banks backed up by the government. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said the same thing two days ago. I would assume that would apply to JPMorgan and their speculative and manipulative short position in silver.
This is my point. Legitimate and honest rules and fairness in silver would free the price of silver. Nothing could be simpler; if the regulators do the right thing and enforce the intent of commodity law the silver manipulation will end. But what if the regulators and Gary Gensler don’t enforce the intent of law, then what? The simple answer is that it will not matter for anything except the timing.
The silver manipulation will end regardless of what anyone, including Chairman Gensler, does or says. It will end because the coming certain physical shortage guarantees that it will end. That is the backstop in the event Chairman Gensler can’t or doesn’t implement legitimate position limits in silver. The inevitable moment when the world’s tens of thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands, of industrial fabrication users begin to experience delays in their real silver deliveries, the silver manipulation will crumble. Why? Because the manipulators can sell unlimited quantities of paper silver contracts short to contain and depress the price, but they can’t pull real silver out of thin air to satisfy users’ demands if the real silver doesn’t exist.
Already we are seeing delays in the shipments of silver to various silver-related ETF’s and in COMEX deliveries. These investment-type delays are tolerated because what does it matter if an investor has to wait a while for his silver. That’s not a critical, life or death concern. But when the delays spread to users, then it becomes a life or death situation; the potential life or death of a company needing silver as a key component. User delays will trigger user inventory buying panic.
So, if the coming silver shortage will spell the end of the manipulation regardless, then why should I obsess with what Chairman Gensler and the CFTC might do to end it? The answer is simple. It has to do with integrity. If the CFTC waits to address the silver problem until after the physical shortage hits, it will rain shame and disgrace on the Commission for not acting sooner. We need more disgrace brought upon the important regulatory institutions of this country, like we need holes in our heads. Silver will explode in price no matter what the Commission does. But only by getting ahead of this issue can Chairman Gensler hope to salvage integrity for his agency and our markets. For his and our sakes, I hope he does the right thing.