this is from adam hamilton's essay, silver bull seasonals:

Like gold, silver has exhibited very clear seasonality within its secular bull. If silver’s bull-market rise was distributed randomly throughout the calendar years, this chart wouldn’t be so volatile. This white metal definitely has stronger and weaker times of the year, which is very useful for silver investors and speculators to know. Even though seasonality is almost never a primary driver, it creates tailwinds and headwinds that can amplify or retard the primary sentiment-driven trends.

Seasonally the silver year starts with its first strong rally. While it actually launches in mid-December, the great majority of this rally runs between January and early April. On average over the last decade, silver has surged 13.5% higher during this span. This winter rally is actually silver’s strongest seasonal time of the year. Obviously today we are early on in this bullish span, which is good news for silver traders.

After this winter rally peaks in early April, silver tends to grind lower into early September. While shorter rallies in May and July enliven this drifting span, the prevailing trend clearly remains down. This is the infamous summer doldrums, the worst time of year to own precious metals. The old stock-market adage “Sell in May and Go Away” certainly applies to silver. The universal appetite for speculation tends to wane in the summer, so as one of the world’s most speculative commodities silver takes a hit.

But weak prices create an excellent buying opportunity late in summer. Between mid-August and early September, few traders are excited about silver after its multi-month drift lower. This leads to the year’s best seasonal entry point in silver and silver stocks, so investors and speculators should capitalize on it. Back in August 2009, when silver was trading under $14, I wrote about the coming big autumn silver rally.

And silver stocks are even better buys than silver in this dreary late-summer timeframe. Just like the silver price tends to amplify gold action, silver stocks tend to amplify silver action. So when traders aren’t excited about silver after its usual summer drift lower, the silver stocks are often sold to deeper discounts than the prevailing silver prices warrant. So instead of forgetting about silver late each summer like most traders, capitalize on their apathy by aggressively buying new silver-related investments and speculations.

http://news.silverseek.com/Zealllc/1264198102.php