after a spectacular run up in the metals markets it seems the experts are divided about the short-term future. the short positions in silver and gold have grown to levels that are disturbing. the short position in silver is now at a dangerous level, and the short position in gold is off the charts dangerous. david morgan wants to see silver trade over $17 on heavy volume for three consecutive days to confirm its uptrend. ed steer thinks the chances are good there will be a smackdown lasting from two weeks to a month, costing silver as much as $2 and gold $50, but that prices will recover quickly and go to new highs.

we saw something similar in december 2005 when the commercial short positions were at very high levels, but they were overrun, and an explosive move upward occurred. the odds are against it here, but it could happen. times like these make me glad i'm not a short term trader.