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Message: Both gold and silver nearing technical support

Both gold and silver nearing technical support

posted on Jul 13, 2009 02:21PM

gene arensberg has issued another report. here are some excerpts:

Both gold and silver continued to get sold down this past week, probably a case of fearful investors raising cash ahead of a perceived storm brewing. However, both metals are nearing obvious areas of implied technical support and the news lately sure seems to be more supportive of gold and silver prices than not.

Silver ETF: Barclay’s (for now, and soon to be BlackRock’s) sponsored iShares Silver Trust (SLV), reported no change to their silver holdings. Despite silver dropping a sizable $3.50, or 22%, from its early June pinnacle, SLV’s metal holdings have been steady since June 17.

The trust continues to hold more silver than the original custodian agreement with J.P. Morgan Chase London called for, reporting 8,724.86 tonnes of silver bars held for investors by the custodian.

Although we noted tighter than normal spreads early in the week again, apparently buying and selling pressure for the silver ETF have been more or less balanced over the past week, otherwise the prospectus says we would have seen changes to the metal holdings and number of tradable shares.

One quick side note here. With premiums for physical silver metal products back to normal or near normal and availability seemingly adequate regionally, now might be an excellent time to convert shares of SLV into the real deal physical metal. Investors might want to check with their local dealer and even “lock-in” such a transaction ahead of the actual “exchange.” Investors will want to make one more phone call before hand, to their accountant, who can advise them on strategies to make the like-for-like item conversion tax friendly.

The Gold:Silver Ratio (GSR) rose to over 70 and has remained above that level now for four trading days. Our antennae are up now and we caution everyone to pay close attention to this ratio in the days ahead. This ratio should fall rather quickly over the next few weeks from its current 71.97 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold, but if it doesn’t, then we will become much more defensive in our positioning. A high and rising GSR is warning. It signals rising fear. See the nine-month daily GSR graph for more commentary.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2009/Jul/13/U-S--banks-still-dominate-COMEX-gold,-silver-short

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