precious metals: too far too fast?
posted on
Jun 03, 2009 12:46PM
SSO on the TSX, SSRI on the NASDAQ
no market goes straight up, so there are going to be days like this. przemyslaw radomski comments in this article:
It was only several months ago when we experienced a massive plunge in precious metals and mining stocks. Since the plunge was severe while the precious metals market fundamentals remained bullish, we saw a sizable rebound in the entire sector. Those, who sold their holdings began to realize that this was just a temporary downswing and were eager to buy back – as the fundamentals are still intact.
During especially emotional periods in the stock market, we can see every asset class move in the same direction, driven by emotion rather than logic and analysis. Once the smoke clears and emotions subside, most investors begin to look at the fundamentals rather than relying on gut-feelings. They get back to the logical side of the market, which in this case, means back to investing in the precious metals.
If we take a look at the silver chart, we see that silver is just about to reach the $16 level. I have used the SLV ETF as a proxy for the silver market. The price of spot silver is about 1% higher than the value of this fund, so the resistance price level is not much affected given the size of the preceding move and the fact that the resistance is “around” the $16 level rather than precisely on it. This situation is caused by the fact that apart from the classic 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which points to the $16.08 (SLV ETF) level, we have seen several bottoms and tops around this price level. I have marked them on the chart with red ellipses. Please note that price has not stopped precisely at $16, but it has hovered around it many times.