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Message: options expiration week

options expiration week

posted on May 26, 2009 02:04PM

this is from adrian douglas:

AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL WEEK

This week will probably prove to be the most critical week of the precious metal bull market since it started in 2001.

There is a COMEX options expiry for JUNE gold and silver contracts Tuesday May 26. It is however gold that is center stage because the Open Interest in the silver options is only 5,251 contracts. The big Open Interest in silver options is in the JULY contract at 22,481 contracts. However, the Open Interest in gold Call options for JUNE stands at 101,196 contracts of which 53,932 contracts will be in the money if gold exceeds $1000/oz. This is extremely interesting. I wrote about this in an article on April 29. I consider that some big buyers have been buying the options above the market and are buying futures contracts so that the price gradually runs into their options strike prices. Under such a scenario it is highly likely that a lot of these contracts will be exercised for futures contracts and then they will stand for delivery in July. This ties in very well with the fact the MFA shows the buying is extremely strong but not pushing the market strongly in an attempt to accumulate as many contracts as possible before the price takes off. It also explains why the silver MFA is not showing the same structure because if these same buyers are holders of the silver options for JULY then they still have 30 days to focus on silver buying. Of course if gold takes off this week silver will go along for the ride and will not wait for next month.

There are rumors from the COMEX floor that the dealers are worried about the unusually large CALL options OI for JUNE. They do not have anywhere near enough gold to deliver into the options if they are exercised. There are also rumors that a significant gold short is in trouble.

The dealers ALWAYS try to bomb gold and silver in the week of options expiry. But this coming week looks like it could be very different. The hunters could well be the hunted. First of all the COMEX is closed on Monday for Memorial Day. The only major gold markets that will trade are all physical markets. This is not a good prospect for the Gold Cartel as they manipulate most effectively by selling paper promises not real gold. Secondly, the Cartel has been successful at stampeding long investors because the Cartel has been viewed as invincible. The Cartel is now looking exceedingly vulnerable. Investors do not flee from the selling of vulnerable parties…they buy!

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