after the panic selling of 2008, when it looked like the world would come to an end, or at the very least 2009 would be a terrible year for the stock market, this is what adam hamilton wrote. it is worth noting that he wrote this back on january 16, before most of the huge stock market rally. last october was an even better time to buy mining stocks, but he was close enough:

The bottom line is stock-market history is crystal clear on post-panic stock years. Big down years are almost always followed by really big up years. The only major exception is the Great Depression, when the US economy was cut in half. If you don’t expect a 50% economic contraction today, then the only sound bet to make based on market history is for a massive up year in 2009. We are talking 25% up to maybe even 50% gains in the SPX!

It may be hard to believe a great year is even possible today, but things always look bleak emerging out of a panic. Residual fear lingers a long time, actually until stock indexes finally rise far enough to fully dispel it 6 months or so later. Stocks rebound way before the underlying economy finally starts to recover. Going long right after a panic is the ultimate contrarian bet, very challenging psychologically but promising huge potential rewards.

http://www.zealllc.com/2009/pstpanic...