a nice set up
posted on
Apr 15, 2009 06:57AM
SSO on the TSX, SSRI on the NASDAQ
this is from ted butler, who reports that one or two banks have dug a very large hole for themselves. the four largest traders have accumulated more than 150% of the commercial short position. the other commercials are net long now, but there are still a couple of holdouts left.
Despite the big reductions in net commercial short positions, the ongoing manipulation in silver (and gold), based upon a freakish short concentration, is still evident. If anything, the short concentration has grown more extreme. In COMEX gold futures, the four largest shorts hold more than 98% of the entire commercial net short position. In other words, without the 4 large shorts, there would be little or no commercial short position in gold futures at all. Bank Participation Report data show that three or less U.S. banks are the big shorts, while foreign banks are net long.
In silver, the concentration is more extreme, making the manipulation more extreme. The four largest traders in COMEX silver futures hold a net short position almost 50% greater than the entire total commercial net short position. How is this possible? It is possible because, as a group, the rest of the commercials apart from the big 4 are net long. In other words, if it weren’t for the big 4, there would be a big commercial net long position in COMEX silver futures.
Further, the Bank Participation Report data show that one or two U.S. banks (JPMorgan) make up 96% of the entire commercial net short position in COMEX silver futures. Not the 4 largest traders, as in gold, but the one or two largest traders. And we know it is a U.S. bank or banks. That should have your head spinning. The big U.S. banks have masterminded the financial disaster impacting us all, and should be barred from trading of any sort. Yet one or two of them hold the entire commercial net short position in COMEX silver futures.
The next time the CFTC tries to tell you that concentration isn’t the only issue proving manipulation, you should laugh in their face. One U.S bank, JPMorgan, holds perhaps the entire commercial net short position in COMEX silver and that’s not proof of manipulation? What is? To claim they are legitimately hedged is a joke. All the world’s silver hedging must go through one U.S. bank? Get serious.
Let me be clear here - you can have a nice set up and still be in a manipulated market. Long-time readers will recall many such occasions over the years. The fact that the short position has become so concentrated is actually part of the nice set up, to my way of thinking. That’s because the big short commercial traders are being increasingly challenged by other commercials, who I refer to as the raptors. These raptors are long in both silver and gold and will buy more when and if prices decline. They provide real competition to the big shorts. The big shorts can’t shake them out to the downside, like typically leveraged speculative longs. Bottom-line, the structure of the paper markets is encouraging, and any further sell-off will improve the structure.