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Message: john embry interview part 2

john embry interview part 2

posted on Mar 15, 2009 10:11AM

john embry is interviewed by andrew mickey, and discusses a variety of topics, encluding the exchange traded funds:



Andrew Mickey: The gold ETF (like the GLD) has been the number one recommended way to invest in gold in the U.S.

It’s a hot subject of debate by those who are new to gold and those which have been following it for while. The new people to gold always recommend the GLD. What are your thoughts?

John Embry: Well, they are just plain wrong in my opinion.

I think gold and silver are the ultimate insurance policy. When things got really bad in the system you want to make sure the vehicle you own has the gold and silver that it allegedly is supposed to have.

Now, I may buy gold and have it in my own possession. I know I have it. And then there are other gold and silver vehicles like Central Fund of Canada (NYSE:CEF) or Central Gold-Trust (NYSE:GTU), to cite a couple, where the gold is allocated. It’s in a vault and there are regular audits to prove everything that’s behind the vehicle is in fact there. So you are getting what you pay for.

Now, in the case of the ETF I am not totally sure. I mean if you read their prospectuses closely enough you’ll see there is some wiggle room. What they are trying to do is just track the gold price so you don’t necessarily need the physical gold. They could be using paper derivative types of products to back the stock.

What really made me kind of uncomfortable recently, was there was this dramatic ramp up in the amount of money going into the GLD ETF in particular. I looked around and I am going like, where is gold coming from?

As you know, the gold market is acknowledged by virtually everybody to be tight. I know mine supply is falling, I know that - I didn’t see any appreciable change in any of the inventory levels or any of the recognized exchanges like COMEX etc., and there was no particular acceleration in the Central Bank dispositions. So my question is, if suddenly all this new buying appeared because of the ETF having to sort of stock up, where did the gold come from?

I am not sure it bought any gold. I think they might have gone to COMEX and just bought a paper contract.

I don’t know. I just think there are better vehicles than ETFs.

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