jim willie speculates that the half of the stated comex inventory is fiction, and it could default some time in the first quarter:

COMEX INVENTORY – BACK DOOR INTERRUPTIONS

While many observers have been busily gauging and tracking the Open Interest and Demands for Delivery by COMEX participants, they have focused on the wrong things. Robbery and gutting of a giant KMart does not occur in broad daylight through the front door, removing items on shelves by a pack of kerchiefed men brandishing shotguns and escaping in Chevy Econoline vans. That is what the observers seem to expect by their tracking. No! The COMEX default will come from removal of inventory by means of denial by the powerful billionaires who have targeted the corrupted exchange. Sales of large blocks of gold & silver take place outside the COMEX in private transactions at prices 20% to 30% above the corrupt COMEX prices. The sold bullion does NOT find its way back to the COMEX.

Furthermore, many large gold & silver mining firms have reduced sharply their actual mine projects, enough to reduce new supply to the COMEX. The big lie is the stated COMEX inventory, half probably pure fiction. Some is likely ‘Deep Storage’ bullion, as in unmined mountain deposits, the major ore bodies. The cracks have formed in the December gold & silver contract month. The breakdown should occur in 1Q2009 here, like by the end of March. All is on schedule, if only the observers knew what to monitor. They are errantly focused on the front windows, ignoring the back doors and loading docks.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJacka...