silver is still massively oversold
posted on
Jan 06, 2009 07:59AM
SSO on the TSX, SSRI on the NASDAQ
this article says that despite the rally from its recent lows, silver is still underpriced.
Silver is massively oversold – probably more oversold than any other commodity or stock market in the world and yet its fundamentals are arguably as sound now as they were before.
Industrial demand for silver is set to fall admittedly but that will be more than made up for by significantly increasing investment demand. Also importantly the supply of silver may fall – silver supply coming primarily from the by product in base metal mines – many of which are failing due to the collapse in base metal prices.
Silver’s average price in Q1 08 was some $18 and this will likely be surpassed in 2009.
It is important to remember that silver’s average price in all of 2008 was some $15/oz and thus silver is currently trading at some 36% below its average price in 2008.
Most importantly, there is less refined silver in the world than gold – a fact that most people simply cannot get their head around and fully understand due to gold being currently some 77 times more valuable than silver.
Above-ground Inventory (billions of ounces)
(Inventory statistics taken from World Gold Council, the Silver Institute, and others, Population data from US Census Bureau)
Silver is likely to return back to its recent highs in 2008 above $20/oz and there is a possibility that silver could reach well over the nominal 1980 high of $50/oz in 2009 (as gold has already comfortably done with an average price of $870 in 2009).