jeffrey christian interview
posted on
Dec 17, 2008 05:59AM
SSO on the TSX, SSRI on the NASDAQ
this is a small part of the interview that pertains to silver. jeffrey christian covers fundamental reasons for the volatility of the silver price. he doesn't believe in market manipulation (i suspect he'll find out before too long) but explains how fund de-leveraging brought the price down:
TGR: So we may see some rush to gold, which may lift it up to $1,000 or $2,000. What about other precious metals like silver? Will that tail along with gold?
JC: I’m actually now in a situation where I like silver, platinum, palladium and the other platinum group metals as well as gold. I like silver for a couple of reasons. One is it’s a financial asset like gold, it is benefiting from the move of investors into silver and gold, and it will continue to benefit from that. But you’ll also see several other things. First off, there is not a lot of metal in the silver market, half a billion ounces in bullion and maybe a half a billion ounces in bullion coins. In gold you have a billion-plus ounces that investors own and another 980 million ounces that central banks own. There aren’t those large enormous stockpiles of silver if you’re looking at it on a dollar value basis. In addition, silver is an industrial metal with some very interesting new uses coming up. It’s losing some of its traditional uses such as photography; but in other uses, such as batteries and electronics, it’s actually growing very sharply and could grow more sharply over the next few years. So I think silver’s got a lot of good things going for it. It’s an alternative financial asset like gold. It’s a smaller, less liquid, more volatile market than gold. And it has the industrial base that gold doesn’t have. So I like silver for those three reasons.
TGR: What brought silver down so much? It got up to $21; now we’re at $9 and change.
JC: The massive amount of leveraged investment in these things has brought all of these metals down. Everybody keeps talking about de-leveraging, but if you ask them to explain it, they can’t. But let me try to explain what I mean when I say leveraged investment. You had hundreds of billions of dollars of institutional money invested in gold and silver forwards, gold and silver over-the-counter options, and gold and silver indexed notes—all written by banks and all with major leverage factors. Some were 10:1; some of them were actually 30:1 or 40:1. As the financial crisis occurred, institutional investors had their credit lines pulled back. Consequently, they had to reduce the amount of investments that they’d borrowed money to make. So a hedge fund that has $10 billion under management and a leverage factor of 20 might have $200 billion of leveraged trades. Then suddenly you don’t have the money to support $200 billion worth of leveraged trades. You have to liquidate most of them because you really only have $10 billion—which is going down in value fast. So there’s been this massive sale of leveraged products. It’s like running for the exit in a theater when somebody yells fire. It’s a very small door, a very illiquid market, and all of a sudden there’s no provision of credit. Everybody’s trying to get rid of their leveraged exposure all at once and these prices have just plunged down. That’s really what it’s been.
TGR: But silver has lost nearly half, while gold is down less.
JC: Silver prices are always more volatile than gold prices. That’s just a fact of life. It has to do with the fact that the silver market is about one-twelfth the size in dollar terms. The other thing is that gold is money and silver is like money. Silver has this schizophrenic personality. It is an industrial commodity, but it’s also a financial asset and you do see more people investing in gold than in silver worldwide right now. As the prices plunged, you have seen an unprecedented volume of physical gold and silver being purchased by investors around the world. So you have this dichotomy, where the price is being hammered down by de-leveraging in the paper market, while people—in some cases the same people—are taking what’s left of their chips and putting them into physical gold. One of the things I think you will see going forward over the next many years is a lot of institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds and government funds, wanting exposure to gold and silver but not on a leveraged basis where they’re really owning IOUs issued by major banks. They are wanting the physical material.