this is from ed steer of casey research:

There's lots of talk out there about backwardation and Comex delivery default in December...or maybe into early 2009. Ted and I spent a lot of time talking about it yesterday. His opinion (and he's an expert on this) is that based on what he's seen to date, default is not going to happen. It still can happen, but only if new (and very large) previously unknown buyers show up asking for delivery as December goes along. But for the moment, this belongs in the "maybe" category. Time...as they always say...will tell.

http://caseyresearch.com/displayDrp....