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Message: david galland

david galland

posted on Oct 27, 2008 09:51AM

david galland puts gold shares on trial, and this is a portion of what they have to say in their own defense. you can find the entire essay at:

http://caseyresearch.com/drpRoom.php...

No stock has escaped undamaged in the global carnage, including gold stocks. The down-drafts have been breathtaking, and it’s easy to imagine that gold stocks will just keep falling. Here’s what happened...


For starters, hedge funds continued deleveraging, which can cause significant moves in market prices due to their use of margin. Withdrawals in U.S. hedge funds hit $43 billion in September alone. Meanwhile, mutual funds and "basket of commodities" ETFs continued selling off due to disappointed, or frightened, investors. This means the good was sold along with the bad. Add in the intensifying fear in the marketplace and few buyers were to be found.

Second, as the sea of red numbers continued splashing across headline news, investors fled in droves. Many simply didn’t want to be the last one out of what they believed was a burning building, so “Dump everything!” was the mantra. Many stocks, in a perverse use of logic, were sold because they had value. Lots of investors simply fled to cash, which is where investors reflexively go when they see a market rout.

Lastly, right or wrong, gold stocks are perceived by some as riskier than your average IBM or GE. Further, few gold stocks pay dividends, and the ones that do only yield 1-2%. Some sellers might have stuck around if they were getting 8-10%.

So, is that it for gold stocks? Look at the reasons outlined above: where does it say investors sold because inflation is dead? Where does it say the public left because the government has promised not to print money to solve their problems? Where does it indicate gold is no longer viewed as a safe haven? Has mankind lost interest in war? Does the dollar’s recent rise mean its ills have been cured? Banks are fine? The economy has a bright future?

The bottom line: the base case for gold stocks remains intact, because at some point the public will see them as the place to go for profit. Gold will rise, and regardless of what the general market is doing at the time, gold stocks will separate and follow gold up. The best days for gold stocks still lie ahead, because a much higher gold price is assured by all the recent efforts to stave off a recession. Since gold stocks were pulled down by a general market panic and for reasons unrelated to fundamentals, our advice is to hold on. We’re confident their day will come. And we’ll sell when the problems that have yet to push gold to new inflation-adjusted highs have all played out. In the meantime, we need to be steady while others are fearful.

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