i don't know how many mines will close or reduce their production, but overall i think total mine supply plus recycling will roughly equal industrial demand for silver, and perhaps provide a small surplus over the next few years.

when goldcorp's penasquito mine comes on line, it will produce 30 million ounces all by itself. but the big gold companies like newmont and barrick are seeing declining gold and silver production ahead. so much silver is also produced as a byproduct of base metals in lead-zinc-silver mines that it is hard to come up with aggregate figures.

regardless of the supply or industrial demand, i think the wildcard that will drive the price of silver in the years ahead is monetary demand. when investors start viewing silver as an inflation hedge, there is no telling what will happen. we just had a small glimpse of that when the us mint and most of the coin dealers in north america ran out of silver.

basically i think the supply of silver will be stagnant, or a slight increase at best, while investment or monetary demand is where the real story is. every time the central fund of canada issues more shares, that much silver bullion disappears from the marketplace. every time investors buy bullion through goldmoney.com, that much physical silver is taken off the market. the annual silver supply is already spoken for by industry, and an increase in physical demand will eventually put an end to the games being played on the comex.