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Message: Re: john embry - hold on to your wallet
2
Apr 13, 2008 08:46AM

like everyone else, embry has winners and losers.  we all know that is the nature of the junior market.  but one aurelian is enough to make up for a lot of losers.  embry was smart enough not just to be in on the aru ipo, but also to hold the stock for years while it did nothing.  now it is worth about 70 times what he paid for it.  it is hard for them to manipulate your stock when you find 13+ million oz. gold.  hard but not impossible, as aru will sell for much more than its current price when it is taken out.

it is a lot easier and safer to short the other juniors, whose assets are not so obvious.  when you look at the valuations of juniors compared either to the price of silver and gold, or to the major producers, it is clear that sso isn't the only stock being shorted.  it now appears that hedge funds have gone long the producers, as we have seen large moves in agnico-eagle, yamana, and others, and short the juniors which have languished.

embry's funds are loaded with juniors, so they have suffered the most due to shorting, not because he is a bad analyst.  but even now we are seeing stocks like abcourt and western copper that jump 20% in a day on no news.  that doesn't happen unless the prices have been artificially depressed, and someone has decided to cover.  eventually this will sort itself out, the juniors will resume normal valuations, and  they will make huge moves to do 

the majors aren't finding deposits by themselves, or even exploring for them any more, so to replace theri reserves, they have nowhere else to go but the juniors.  agnico-eagle is still in the process of building mines at four acquistions, yet sean boyd said he is looking forward to spending another $1.6 billion on acquisitions.

when the valuations become absurd, smart companies are taking advantage of them.  eastmain resources was able to buy a gold deposit in quebec for $16/oz.  these prices are due to distortions in the market due to shorting, and they will not last forever.

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