the following analysis is by adrian douglas, who contributes to gata. there were a couple of graphs with the text, which i can't paste in here. i could upload them to the forum photo libray, but i don't think technical analysis belongs there, and besides, this way you have another reason to visit lemetropolecafe.com and/or join gata.

MARKET FORCE ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR KEY COMMODITIES MARCH 30, 2008 By Adrian Douglas

Here is the latest update on the Market Force Analysis for the key commodities. GOLD (Figure 1) It has been a wild time since my last update of March 16 to put it mildly! In my last update of March 16 gold was trading at $998.7. On Friday it closed at $930.6 but touched $904 in trading during the week. There was no indication of weakness in the market before this happened as can be seen in Figure 1. I have provided a zoomed in chart in Figure 1A. The debacle was not created by market exhaustion and in fact the uptrend in the MFA is unbroken. What does this tell us? It tells us that this was without a doubt the Cartel who decided to do a hatchet job. This is equivalent to the golden beach ball being pushed under-water. It was NOT due to the water draining out of the swimming pool. The Cartel always hopes in these raids that they can panic the longs to persuade them to pull the plug from the pool and drain it for them. So far this has not happened and the MFA uptrend remains intact. If this remains the case gold will recover very quickly. There is always the possibility that the Cartel will try again in the coming week. In fact I would say it is very likely. The question is will they be successful? The MFA uptrend looks very strong so I would say that the dynamics favor the bulls. This is the type of set up where fortunes are made. However, it is also exactly the type of setup where the weakly capitalized lose a fortune as they are stopped out before the market rockets higher. The Cartel’s Achilles Heel is a lack of physical bullion. Anyone who tries to out-trump them in their strong suit of endless paper promises is asking to pay a high price in tuition fees! As pointed out on many occasions when the MFA is near the top of the channel it is a high risk entry point. However, for those who are already long that does not mean “sell”, because the rise in this upleg could still be dramatic.