from the dung heap Iscum emerges another good post from Imperial Wazoo:

Hey Hurricane Rick -

The timestamp on the post of the link to the 98 pictures..... I think that, once the 98 pictures showed up and people could eye-ball the ACTUAL state of affairs at the plant, the price decline reversed and the price ascent began.

Anyway, after watching this happen yesterday, I've decided it is incumbent on me to explain how I know more than your average guy about the behaviour of SFMI bid/ask activity.

Basically, its because I database the real-time tick data on 500 stocks, including SFMI, and I have done so for the last two years. So I can compare what happened after this week's PR to what is normal for SFMI.

I wrote a "black box" autotrading program that grabs real time ticker data on 500 stocks out of a socket.

I launch a data collecting database every morning, pre-market. I collect every change in the bid, the ask, the size of the bid, the size of the ask, every lot that gets bought/sold..... a whole bunch of data points....

....every single real time change gets databased in real time. I watch 500 stocks, including SFMI.

So, if there is a pattern to the trading of any stock I watch, I have the real time data on it. This includes SFMI.

So, I can tell you that it is my opinion that, after the PR this week about the Centurian deal, the buyer (or buyers) who is/are accumulating SFMI did so vigorously, and in larger lots, compared to earlier in the year.

The PR was an event, from a programmatic point of view, that resulted in a pattern that those of us developing automated trading solutions call "interesting".

What was "interesting" about it was that the buying at the bid looks like it increased in the size of lots involved, and in frequency of occurance. Then, the 98 pictures showed up, and this also proved itself to be a programmatic event that was "interesting" because it resulted in the accumulation appearing to have continued, but now at the ask rather than at the bid.

Very interesting, IMHO.

I've thought there was an accumulator in the background all summer long, and after watching what happened when the news this week got exploited, I'm sure of it.

That said, from a non-programmatic point of view, the following was what I think happened:
After the PR came out, the opinion that the Centurian deal was toxic financing was all but instantaneous. To prove this, just look at the various timestamps on things. The deal was labeled as dilutive and this happened so fast that there was no way that the particulars of the filing had even been read, IMHO.

The fact is, though, that the Centurian deal is not toxic financing and it is not dilutive. And that is FACT.

But this being the truth did not alter the momo on the chart. SFMI got labeled. The label stuck. Buyers look like they showed up with both increased size and frequency, at the bid. And price dropped. DUH!!

Its my opinion that an accumulator, who has been accumulating for some time, wants more shares and I think my data shows a definite pattern of accumulation that accelerated after the news of the Centurian deal got exploited.

Quote: Then another "interesting" event occured. Somebody posts the 98 pictures.

The power of the 98 pictures was massive.

Apparently, people saw the pictures and believed their eyes, LOL.

And, apparently, the buyer who had been able to accumulate at the bid was now forced to accumulate at the ask.

I think he is still in accumulation mode, mind you.

But now, price decline became price advance.

And this happened upon the release of the link to the 98 pictures.

Simple as that. Thats what I think the data shows.

The pictures showed that the plant was expanding.

Quote: They showed that the equipment did not come from central casting.

There is dust and the kind of worn look to the machinery that is positive evidence that what is going on in the high desert in southwest Idaho is real.

Quote: AND THAT ITS BEEN GOING ON STEADILY FOR QUITE SOME TIME!!

They are finding gold and silver in the piles of rock and they are grinding it and concentrating it and turning it into dore bars.

And they are selling it.

They are employing tough looking workers and installing vault doors and concrete reinforced by rebar.

Muddy flows and vibrating shaker tables and ball mills and conveyors and front-end loaders and excavation work and on and on and on.....

One h#%$ of a fraud, if you ask me.

One h#%$ of an elaborate scam to go to these lengths to steal ordinary people's money.

Quote: And the worn state of the factory floor and the machinery that is obviously in heavy use shows this to be a real deal, not a waste of money and a fraudulent scam.

Once the 98 pictures were out there, the exploited news event got overwritten in everybody's short term memory by the link to the 98 pictures.

And people answered the question: "What ya gonna believe.... what yer bein' tole or what yer lyin' eyes are tellin' ya???" by reversing the downtrend in price.

Accumulation had been successfully conducted by exploiting the news of the Centurian deal, IMHO, but the pictures changed that.

Accumulation was now going on at the ask, rather than the bid, and hence, price reversed and the price ascended.

Thats what the data I grabbed out of the socket and into my real time database shows, IMHO.

Simple as that.

I'm confident of what will be shown once I run the numbers and generate average block size data and time references to ascertain the average size and time separation averages (time between trades) on the past and the present on SFMI, going back to this time last year.

I could even look back at the last several news events and fingerprint them. I'm not sure how deep I want to take the forensics on the data I've zipped upon DVDs for the last two years. But for the immediate & short term timeframe covering the last week (both before the news and after), I think the picture is as clear as a bell.

A statisticcal fingerprint will take some time and maybe I'll release the data..... maybe not. But my preleminary look at the last week shows that the things I posted above are what happened.

It was a PR that was exploited, IMHO, and that ramped up an existing buy program and enabled larger than normal activity at the bid. There is an accumulator who has been at it for quite some time and the only thing that I wish I had done that I did not think to database (when I designed this thing) was to track the MMs on the bid and ask so I could generate an analysis of where the accumulator is coming from.

And I'd also like to have figured out a way to database the pattern the various MMs have had to their bid side & ask side activity.... wish I'd thought of that back when I wrote this thing....anyway, whatever.

But I do think that there is a buyer (or buyers) and that the buyer exploited the news to accelerate accumulation at the bid, and that the release of the 98 pictures changed that to accumulation at the ask.

Simple as that.

Hope all that helps, folks.

Quote: Basically, what it tells me is that there appears to be at least one player working to accumulate SFMI. This "player" is sophisticated enough to exploit the news and relentless enough to reverse field and begin accumulating at the ask once 98 pictures showed up that changed the sentiment and the momo on the charts.

Also, logic also tells me this: the "player" is not concerned that price is too high at the present ASK because there was not the least bit of hesitation about the necessity of accepting the reality that happened once the 98 pictires showed up. They accepted the reality that the time when they could get shares at the bid was behind them and they seamlessly stepped across the book and began buying in earnest at the ask.

IMHO, there is attempt, that is actively being engaged in, to stealthily get a leg up on a SIZABLE position in SFMI.

This can possibly mean that management's future plans to sell SFMI might become a bidder's war, and IMHO, this is not bad for long term shareholders.

One thing is certain, though: never a dull moment, and this could get very interesting as the 43-101 and the other stuff begins to be PRed.

:o)

Imperial Whazoo