Re: I welcome a factual & logical explanation of why to buy GHDC?
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 19, 2011 02:27PM
(Edit this Message from the "Fast Facts" Section)
Z,
No problem with the discussion- it's not adversarial at all. That's the advantage of this board- we can have real discussions and do it in a civil manner.
As to your points, I hope PQ was right when he stated that GHDC and New Vision/Bissell would not both get 15% on any one shipment. But that's not how I remember the agreement. GHDC gets 15% from anything removed from their claims. And the Sinker agreement if I remember correctly says that NV/B gets 15% of any ore removed through the Sinker. I don't remember the exact wording, but I thought it meant any ore coming out through the Sinker, no matter the source. This might be something that could be cleared up at the meeting or by asking IR.
As to SFMI's leverage, that leverage is greatest at gold prices near the cost of mining. The leverage decreases as the price of gold increases. You have used $1000 as the starting point, but I think that $1000 gold is safely behind us. Starting at $1500 and going to $3000 and using $500 costs, SFMI's profit goes from $850 to $2125, an increase of 2.5 times, while GHDC's profit doubles. That's only 25% leverage (.5/2), which will be reduced by any increase in mining costs. Even lower leverage results from further rises in the price of gold. To put it another way, at $1500 gold SFMI makes a profit of 850/1500 = 57%. As I've mentioned before, their profit margin is capped at 85%, which is an increase of 50% over the 58%. So the total leverage is capped at 1.5 times, which of course will never be reached unless mining and admin costs go to zero. And they will be less if gold is higher than $1500, or costs less than $500 when serious gold sales start. So while there is some leverage, it is much less than a factor of 2.
As to the SFMI:GHDC price ratio, the maximum theoretical as I mentioned before is 5.7, if SFMI's costs are zero, and assuming GHDC doesn't buy other properties. It also assumes that revenues are great enough so that SFMI's $1M payment can be ignored, and that ore is extracted from GHDC properties. That 5.7 will be reduced by SFMI's operating costs, but increased by ore extracted from the Sinker. So as to your question about pricing, it's a guessing game. PQ is mostly invested in GHDC, but the situation with the Sinker may have changed the thinking that resulted in that. Of course, PQ gets a cut either through GHDC or Bissell, so he is OK either way. GHDC is a question mark. They will certainly make money, but the amount it exceeds the $1M payment is hard to predict at this point.