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Message: Re: gobble gobble

Feb 14, 2011 04:09PM
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Feb 14, 2011 05:34PM
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Feb 14, 2011 11:06PM
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Feb 14, 2011 11:33PM
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Feb 15, 2011 12:02AM
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Feb 15, 2011 09:07AM

Garick,

I've been in since SFMI was less than 50M shares. Yes, dilution isn't necessarily good- but at least PQ has issued shares wisely- they have been used to build the mill and get to production. I'm sure he got more value per share than issuing them through a broker who would take a cut off the top. 289M shares is relatively few for a company that has gotten to production. And also remember that SFMI is essentially debt free compared to most companies starting production. That's why 15% of the revenue will be available for share buybacks instead of paying off debt.

SFMI's share price is low for a couple reasons- first, the market is still skeptical that SFMI can pull this off. PQ had no prior experience in the mining business, and until SFMI has accomplished enough to convince everyone, the market will wait. Second, SFMI's PRs have been both unclear and relatively uninformative- not tomention unreliable. The most recent was typical- while we got some information such as the assays and quantity of the concentrate, there wasn't enough information to calculate the grade of the Belle Peck ore, how much was processed, or the production rate of the mill. Until we get more and clearer information, there's no way to project revenue. Until we can do that, the market will remain skeptical. The MMs have nothing to do with this- they're not preventing anyone from buying at .155. The PR also mentioned that SFMI will build its own lab and smelter- but the announcement of building their own smelter only emphasized the fact that in the almost a year after production began they didn't manage to work out a smelter arrangement, and still are not producing revenue on a regular basis- not to mention that imminent smelter payment that has yet to be mentioned. These things will be worked out, but the market will wait until they do. Other information in the PR, such as the production rate, also emphasized that previous statements weren't exactly reliable- previous numbers of 125-140 or so tpd were not maintained.

Those of us who have looked at SFMI in depth know what this company will be- but the market is reluctant to value them on what will be until more, and more reliable, information is available.


Feb 15, 2011 01:14PM
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