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Message: Solitary musings...from a different perspective.

Solitary musings...from a different perspective.

posted on Oct 30, 2009 07:40PM

We can all have fun delineating all the positives factors that pertain to the potential of SFMI but we have also had to be most aware of the risks/pitfalls. What are some of them and how negative are they?

Well, for one thing, probably the most important factor for any JPM investor to consider is the management (team). This has been a major problem for many and has exposed SFMI to much criticism and board bashing, fair or otherwise. There have also been some subjectve personal and seemingly vindicitve attacks from some who have their own questionable agendas. It has been no secret that Pierre has not enamored himself to many shareholders and potential shareholders. Many have complained about his questionable business successes or lack thereof, his relative inexperience with respect to the mining sector, his overly optimistic news releases, his mistakes, his telephone manner and many other factors. To say that he is not intelligent or does not have business savvy or acumen would be untrue. To say that he is not ambitious would not be true. To say that this is his last shot at success is probably undeniable. This man has a lot at stake folks and I contend that he does not want to bugger it up. There are many that he answers to and many that are depending on him. There are even those that truly believe in him. His primary concern may not be the shareholder...and that could be a very good thing ... because he is going to make this venture work for his own needs. How many out there are any differen't?

So, let's just say that Pierre has something to prove and the only way he can do that is to perform...produce the goods (that are there anyway). That is where the risk is...burden of proof. That is no different than a thousand other juniors out there at this time...except that the goods are definitely there. Objectively speaking, Pierre et al have done quite a remarkable job in a over short time comparatively...and with very little funds. Some complain about stock dilution, another complaint that reverberates throughout the sector for most from JPMs to developers to producers. Every day we see more and more stock dilutions driven by the need for funding variuos exploration and mining projects. But I do not want to dwell on the obvious...we have all discussed the successes.

Let's be sure about one thing. Call it greed (which drives many investors as well as CEOs) or the need to accomplish the goal of thriving by way of achieving goals...by whatever means. In order for Pierre to grab the brass ring, it becomes axiomatic that the shareholders must also be rewarded, whether he really gives a dam or not. Unless the value of the shares can be greatly increased there will never be a big pay day for Pierre, his family and the funders/backers/any partners (visible or silent).

There is another vitally important ingredient to be cognizant of which very few seem to be. Pierre (and partner/s) has "SDV"...otherwise known as "shit disturber value" (pardon the language). I once had a partner who was a master at cashing in on SDV. When you are between the dog and the bone, so to speak, you have SDV. The "dog" in this case is very hungry. It is the many large to small producers in dire need for an increasingly valuable resource, gold and silver to sell to .... the now desperately needed gold bones by certain central bankers, large funds, sovereign funds, foreign governments, ETFs, mints, wealthy corporations, dehedgers such as Barrick, massive physical shorts (JP Morgan, HSBC, others), very wealthy individuals and others. The need for the dogs to have these bones is growing exponentially by the week. Of course, there is a dearth of bones to be had. It wasn't that way when Pierre and crew took posession of the War Eagle "bone" a few years ago. The dogs weren't that hungry at the time. My how the world has changed! Of course the big dogs don't want you to think they are desperate and in civilized countries such as the US (so far) they can not steal the bones. (not like Venezuela where the Gov. has just seized Gold Reserve)

So, he who holds the "SDV" can proceed to make the bone ever more tasty...or he can just sit on the dam thing until some dog out there, big or small, makes a jucy offer. That will happen.. "You can pay him now...or, you can wait and pay more later". The longer it takes the bigger the offer. Anyone want to name a few dogs? Let's see...how about "Kinross"? This bull mastiff is gentle and is accumulating bones .. paying big time for some that are still buried, will be expensive to dig out and will take time. Now they know for a fact that there is a very juicy bone buried in War Eagle mountain...with a small one just laying right out in the open which the "SD", being Pierre, is now sitting on. After all, it isn't as though they don't have a huge historical file on it. They know exactly what is buried there and they know that it may be worth much more. So, what's a lousy $500 millon for a "paint-by-number" bone map that could easily be worth $5 billion or more? Chump change that that dog.

But that's just a guess and I suspect there are many frequenting here who may have much better dog names to speculate on.

So, two of my favortie factors for holding SFMI are CEO greed motivation (wealth management) and "SDV" (shit disturber value).

Time for my "Friday night frolic". Happy Halloween SFMI longs...and Pierre.

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