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Message: revenues

Re: revenues

in response to by
posted on Sep 02, 2009 08:17PM

DC: Over your post history you have asked a lot of questions, often quoted negative comments from other boards and posed a lot of doubts such as “The filing makes it look like mgmt and Gold Corp can undermine SFMI. Of course I know that they won't but…”.

Then, you innocently enough pose question after question which create doubt: “What will the monthly cash flow from the mill be once it is up and running? It would be good to know the expected cash flow after the Gold Corp payments. How will the $1 mil annual payment be structured? Will Gold Corp receive all of their cash before SFMI can do a share buy back? What about the deferred payroll to mgmt that is accumulating? We're kind of at the mercy of Gold Corp to do the right thing.”

Basically you are always creating doubt…and old, old trick . Throw out a complement or kudo, keep people off guard as log as possible, but slip in a doubt. Of course, on this BB you have to adroitly position yourself so that you don’t look too obvious. Time to end the games DC. Start answering your own questions or do your own DD.

Obviously you are playing games. Some of your questions have already been answered such as cash flow…not less than a week ago by LongSFMI: in response to Re: No Doubt by dcbass posted on Aug 23, 09 04:24PM

dc, fair enough. -So, accomodating an estimate for lease obligations from Silver Falcon:

<.....Some back of the envelope corrections to my prior post (I had neglected to include a P/E ratio):

I use $140/ton cost of production, 30 tons/day to get $4200 cost/day.

Next I use 1 oz/ton, yielding $1000/ton, 30 tons/day, times .85 to get $25,500 gross/day.

With a net of ($25,500-$4200), or at least $20,000/day net profit, we have $7.3M net/yr.

Then subtracting 1.0M/yr and .2M/yr for royalties paid to GoldCorpHoldings, Inc., we have ($7.3M-$1.2M) or at least $6.0M net/yr.

with a P/E of 10, and o/s of 150M, that yields:

.40 pps at 30 ton/day, and:

with a P/E of 20 (not inconsistent with the P/Es of many mining companies, where ratios as high as 30 can be seen), and o/s of 150M, that yields:

.80 pps at 30 ton/day.....>

Having made this adjustment to my wag for SFMI pps, there are these and other factors that should be looked at:

A) The tailings' gold equivalent yield per ton could be (and I believe that will be) higher than 1 oz/ton. We'll find this out in coming weeks. Longer term, as underground mining begins here, this yield will increase even more.

B) The effect of the share buyback program. This won't be apparent immediately perhaps, but a steady, daily order in the market for the buyback of a certain number of shares will certainly strengthen this.

C) The geo-political variable. sinbob has written of this complex subject quite often, where from various unpredictable domestic and foreign events the POG/POS could change dramatically.

D) The tonnage per day will not stay at 30 ton/day, but will be increased, soon to 100 ton/day.

E) Any suspected/rumored/actual buyout effort.

F) There could be further dilution of the shareholder base. This is difficult to estimate also, because we don't know, for one thing, how aggressively Mr. Quilliam intends to grow this company; but a case could be made that if the profits projected here are fairly close, then the cash flow from same might negate a need for any more dilution.

G) Various naked short selling efforts and the occasional forced covering of same.

One can see that the justifiable pps here, although very difficult to project accurately, must be much higher than the present two cents that the market is assigning. The biggest catalysts to this company in getting priced correctly are a listing on the OTCBB (coming any day now) and the initiation of mill construction/ore processing (in the coming weeks).

DC BASS: don't forget to calculate the Goldcorp debts into your figures. Also, I think a 10PE might be pretty low for a growth co like sfmi. Check out this chart (ex, Kinross is at 27).

http://gold.prime-tass.com/bulletin/analytics/show.asp?id=8872

NOTE 3 – LEASE OF MINING PROPERTIES

On October 11, 2007, Goldcorp leased its mineral rights on War Eagle Mountain to us. The mineral rights consist of 174.82 acres of land on War Eagle Mountain in Idaho, consisting of a 100% interest in 103 acres, and a 29.166% interest in 71.82 acres, plus an additional 44 lease claims obtained from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management. Under the lease, we are responsible for all mining activities on War Eagle Mountain, and we are obligated to pay Goldcorp annual lease payments of $1,000,000, payable on a monthly basis, a monthly non-accountable expense reimbursement of $10,000 during any month in which ore is mined from the leased premises, and a royalty of 15% of all amounts we receive from the processing of ore mined from the properties. The lease provides that lease payments must commence April 1, 2008, but that we may extend the commencement date to July 1, 2009, in which event the lease term will be extended by an equal amount of time. We currently expect to begin actual operations in October 2009”.

DCBASS: get of the pot. Your tactics are wearing thin. Same old pile of s-it. Gets soooo monotonous and transparent. Are you Tim or Tim's alter ego?

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