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Message: Re: Are we being duped?

May 08, 2009 01:31PM

May 09, 2009 11:08AM
1
May 09, 2009 03:42PM

May 09, 2009 04:35PM

Some thoughts and questions:

If I remember correctly, there were roughly 16m free trading shares and 32m restricted shares before the recent financing. This board controls almost 16m (maybe more), which is about the previous number of free trading shares. I assume many of us picked up cheap shares since the recent financing, but that is still an impressive number, and still nearly half of the diluted free trading shares. It would be interesting to find out how many we owned (and what percent of the float) before the financing.

Those 32m begin trading this fall. Are they in strong hands? Any idea who owns them? Does anyone on this board own any restricted shares? I haven't found any records of insider ownership or transactions in the usual places. And does anyone have any idea who bought the shares from the recent financing? That ight provide a clue as to whether they will hit the market.

The recent financing resulted in ~30m more shares, of which ~12m are restricted (since the float increased by ~18m). Do the restrictions on these new restricted shares expire the same time as for the older restricted shares? I wouldn't think so, meaning that the float may remain at ~66m until the newer restricted shares are freed up for the final (I hope) total of 78m. That means that the board may still control ~1/4 of the float for a while. Assuming none of us sell any for a while, that will leave approximately 50m shares available for the buyback program for a while (eventually 62m). Using LongSFMI's assumption of ~$2.7m/year for the buyback program, that's more than all the remaining shares at 0.04, 7m/year at .40 (9 years to buy all the shares), 2.7m/year at $1 (23 years). I doubt that all those 50m will be for share at those prices, and I assume that a number of millions of shares are held by management and other long term holders. I expect that one result of the buyback program will be to reduce the number of shares held by outsiders. I doubt that the buyback program will be able to continue for very long unless the share price rises dramatically to reduce the number of buyback shares to a reasonable level. Of course, revenues could also increase dramatically so that more shares could be bought back!

Well, I'm not sure if I made any points- just stream of (un)consciousness rambling...

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May 10, 2009 06:46AM
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May 10, 2009 09:52AM
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