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Message: silver in backwardation

silver in backwardation

posted on Mar 06, 2009 06:17AM

in this essay by avery goodman, he notes that silver is in backwardation, and mentions several ways to participate in the silver market:

The price of silver has been in so-called “backwardation” for several days now. That means that the price for immediate delivery has been consistently higher than the price for future delivery. In contrast, although the spreads have gotten very tight, in the gold market, we are no longer seeing overt backwardation. The last time we saw it, gold was selling in the mid $800s per ounce. Shortly afterward, the price soared to $1,000.

Normally, gold and silver exist in a state of so-called “contango”. In other words, it normally costs more to buy the metal for future delivery than for immediate delivery. This difference is said to compensate sellers for the cost of storing the metals. Backwardation, where the price for immediate delivery rises higher than the price for future delivery, is an abnormal phenomenon in both markets. Its existence implies that, at a given price, the demand is significantly exceeding the supply. Let us look, for a moment, at the spot price of silver, as reported by the www.Kitco.com, last night.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1245...

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