I've been out of SGR for more than a few months now - sold at a significant loss. But I've been watching it closely and waiting for a re-entry point.

I'm wondering if SGR.DB would be a better place to put new money? I'm not entirely clear on the dynamics of it, so my question is:

Since SGR.DB is selling at such a significant discount to its face value, is an investment here basically taking a position that San Gold will survive? My thinking is, if San Gold goes bankrupt, you lose. But, if it doesn't, then the debentures will move back to face value, which is a good return.

Is my thinking accurate?