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Message: Re: Peter Grandich - Follow-Up to $1 Million Offer
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Dec 15, 2011 11:00PM

Follow-Up to $1 Million Offer

Just when I thought I was going to enjoy my first vacation of the year. …

This article was published today by MarketWatch:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/12/15/1-million-gold-bet-draws-no-takers/

The responses by Jeff Christian and Jon Nadler came as no surprise. Both give new meaning to the phrase “speaking out of both sides of their mouths.” Nadler’s assessment of his “supposed” track record on gold would be hysterical if it wasn’t so false. His arrogance and his denial that he has spent years reporting any and all comments by others who see the golden cup as half empty insult the intelligence of anyone who has endured his campaign against gold. Nadler’s work should be seen by the news media for what it is. (But I won’t hold my breath.)

But I was pleasantly surprised by Dennis Gartman’s response, both in the MarketWatch article and to me personally. (See below.) My opinion of him was wrong, and while we may be on different sides of gold at the moment, I consider him a true gentleman and look forward to his future forecasts.

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Dear Peter,

Firstly, sir, I wish you a Merry Christmas. I trust that your animosity toward me and toward John Nadler and Mr. Christian does not preclude me from making this statement.

Now, having said that, let’s clarify one or two things that clearly need clarification.. I have not said in recent days that gold was to plunge to $1000; I simply said that gold seemed extended to the upside, had performed rather poorly relative to equities, and appears likely to sustain a material decline. I have been around the markets long enough to know that putting a price upon a direction is a fool’s game. Gold is under some pressure, and has begun to weaken relative to equity investment, made rather clear by the fact that the GLD/SPX ratio has broken a longer term support line that had been in gold’s favour for several years. That trend line remains broken this morning and likely it shall remain broken for some while longer.

Too, until quite recently I have been manifestly, steadily, rather relentlessly bullish of gold for the past several years, standing aside once in a while after massive rallies, but always remaining either bullish of gold (in EUR terms primarily) or very bullish of gold, or merely neutral of it. I am, at the moment, neutral of gold and although I fear it may falter farther, I shall likely remain neutral of gold… standing hard upon the sidelines and awaiting a hoped for test of very long trend lines extending back for a decade or more.
This then should hardly be construed as being bearish; I have simply chosen to stand aside, and that my friend is why I’ll not take up your bet. I simply cannot see gold trading to $1000/ounce, although I do suspect that $1350-$1425 is reasonable and perhaps likely in the course of the next several weeks.

Again, I wish you well. I bear no animosity toward you, understanding fully that your anger with me was spawned by the violence of the gold market’s move yesterday. You and I have been around these markets for a very long while. Making enemies… even of those we disagree with in the short term…. Is a mug’s game I prefer not dealing in.

Warm holiday regards,

Dennis Gartman

The Gartman Letter, L.C.

Posted in All Posts Commentary Gold by Peter Grandich.
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