"We are always on the alert for black swans that trigger a series of events that lead to an unanticipated and unforeseen end, such as the assassination of an obscure Archduke in Sarajevo that culminated in World War I. However, my sense is that the impact of Japan’s earthquake on global finance and economies will follow a path similar to Kobe’s – brief turbulence but not a game changer."

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/revisiting-post-kobe-japan