Re: Something to Think About
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 07, 2010 03:20PM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
Thanks Silverback...in a way, that's the fun of valuing gold companies - no two are the same and one can choose what one personally thinks is important.
IMHO.........I think many gold companies are undervalued presently - Gold/crb ratio at around 4 is double what it was pre-crash, plus gold also much higher, everything is in favour of gold companies, yet the gold/hui ratio is 40% above rather than below it's pre-crash level, ie gold has done much better than gold companies - non of that fabled leverage yet. Highland Gold recently had a 6moz medium grade Russia at $80/oz and pe ratio of 7...excellent value and much cheaper than SGR...but that doesn't mean to me that SGR is overvalued on mcap/oz. Just because other companies are valued at lower mcap/oz, doesn't mean they are 'correctly' valued. Maybe your companies have even more upside potential than SGR. I might be arguing that I think SGR is being only valued on its 3moz in my view - other companies might well be valued even cheaper.
I wouldn't like to compare XRA as it's a low grade gold/other metals company. The market said it isn't so interested in these projects post crash (see figures below 90% decline). The downside risk to me for gold equivalent projects is too high if there's another downturn; the market isn't going to listen to me telling them they should value gold eq projects higher. So perhaps XRA is or isn't well-priced presently - I honestly don't know, but I don't like the risk. Whilst in your view of the market SGR is overvalued compared with XRA and NGD, the market puts a higher value on SGR's high grade low cost gold, that it's happy with. And the SGR area must be viewed lower risk. The market response to gold equiv. projects seems to be as follows for your examples (and many others I had in my protfolio).
peak before crash to bottom.................before crash peak to recent peak
XRA 77% down..........171% up
NGD 90% down.........55% of pre-crash peak
SGR 78% down..........200% of pre crash peak
NGD's latest production costs are $462 - perhaps $150-200 above SGR's likely average costs (were they ever to get mining the stuff), which would raise NGD's comparable mcap per oz level by $200 from $158 > likely over SGR's $300.
I'm happy with the premium at present for SGR. I think most gold companies are presently well-undervalued. They haven't responded to favourable changes in gold/crb ratios - infact the sector has gone the other way. Therefore perhaps NGD isn't valued either on anything but its reserves. For comparison, Highland Gold cost me just $80 per oz, and in addition I'm getting a pe ratio of 7:1 on my small investment, or 14% - a good business. My own view of SGR (not teh markets or other analysts), and irrespective of any other company's valuation, is that SGR isn't presently priced much beyond its 3moz (in terms of production potential & undefined reserves), and many other companies may be even more undervalued.
But no doubt it will crash again next week.