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Message: Re: The bad news
5
Dec 15, 2009 10:47PM
1
Dec 16, 2009 12:58AM

Lunch, it's insane how Canadians somehow think "it's different here". Wait until the explicit guarantees of the CMHC start impacting our government and see how fast Carney is to hit the "print" button. BAD, VERY BAD. Check out that Vancouver number!

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1737-Canada-Real-Estate-And-BNN-Interview.html

Canadian family income as a whole ("families of 2 persons or more") is allegedly $70,000 (approximately.) The average house price? $325,000.

That's a multiple of 4.64, or dramatically into bubble territory (the maximum for affordable housing is roughly 3x, so this is 154% of the maximum!)

It's worse in places like Vancouver - there the ratio is over 10 (!) for single-family homes and about 8x for all residences.

Let me be clear, strictly on the numbers:

Canada is in for a housing bust WORSE THAN OURS.

Beware Canadians..... you can argue over the timing of the outcome here, but if you think the "bad event" won't happen and act on that belief, don't cry when a year or three down the road I start piping up with "I told you so!"

2
Dec 16, 2009 09:44AM
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