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Message: Gloomy Times Ahead ???

Gloomy Times Ahead ???

posted on Aug 30, 2009 05:30PM

This was quite a long article, however I manged to read the whole thing. For those that don't have time for the link I cut and pasted the part relevent to SGR shareholders.

http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/newsletter/?newsletter=21

A wealth preservation portfolio should contain the following elements:

  • Physical gold stored outside the banking system. Gold is likely to reach $1,400-$1,600 in 2009 and much higher in the next few years.
  • A much smaller percentage of physical silver, also stored outside the banking system, Silver is considerably more volatile than gold so it is not for the faint hearted. Silver is currently $14.30 and could reach $25-30 in 2009 and considerably higher thereafter.
  • Gold and some silver mining stocks in a combination of some of the majors and some junior mining companies. The gearing to price increases in gold and silver is substantial, especially in the juniors which could go up manifold
  • Other potentially interesting sectors are; uranium and rare earth elements, food stuff and water stocks.
  • Currency management will be critical. US dollar and UK pound should be totally avoided. Norwegian Kroner, Canadian dollar Euro, Swiss Francs and the Chinese Renminbi will do much better. But since all countries will be printing money gold will do considerably better than any other currency.

The following areas should be avoided in a wealth preservation portfolio:

  • Long term bonds (especially in dollars and pounds). Interest rates will go up worldwide and bonds will drop
  • General stockmarket investments. Could go up in inflationary terms but not in real terms. In the short term the Dow Jones could technically go as far as 10-11,000 before it resumes its downtrend. But P/E’s on reported trailing earnings are now above 60 so the market is very overextended and could turn at any time.
  • Real estate, both commercial and residential. Could also go up in inflationary terms but will go down in real terms. Commercial property will become a major problem in coming months both for investors and the banks.

The highest level of wealth preservation is gold and silver stored outside the banking system and also outside the country where you reside. Therefore an important percentage of a portfolio should be in this area.

Stocks in mining companies are potentially very profitable. But it must be remembered that they are subject to higher risks such as the custodian of the shares going under, confiscation or nationalisation of mines or very high taxation of mining profits. Thus in an emergency situation it might be difficult to access these investments.

There is clearly no absolute method of wealth preservation that protects investors against all eventualities. But it is vital to have a plan that gives the best available level of protection for peace of mind.

“I am more concerned with the return of my money
than the return on my money”

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