The "green shooters" are all over these days, it seems.

Funny how they all show up after the market rockets higher by 7% in a week.

But is any of this actually sustainable?

Let's look at the S&P's own data:

Current Market Value: $8.045 trillion.

Dividend Yield: 2.35%

P/E (on reported earnings): 134

Oh do come on!

134?!

Let's assume a few things: First, that the earnings reported over the next year will double. They will be twice as profitable (per reported earnings) in the next 12 months as they are today.

That would take the P/E on the index to 67, and leave the dividend payout unchanged.

Bear Markets tend to bottom with dividend yields in the 5-6% range and with P/Es right near (and sometimes under) 10.

Ok, so we'll be REALLY generous and argue that the S&P 500 will quadruple its earnings over the next 12 months. Fair enough?

This would cut the P/E to 34.

Now let's adjust the SPX to get us a dividend yield between 5-6%; we have to cut the index roughly in half, to about 500.

At this point we have a P/E around 17, and a dividend yield of 4.6%.

Quite conservative - still a bit short of traditional bear market bottom metrics, but about where the post-WWII averages end up falling.

Now about that risk:reward ratio of buying the market here, with the dividend ratio at half a traditional bear market bottom and the P/E of the S&P 500 running at more than 10 times where it normally is when a bear market ends.......

PS: To get the P/E, at SPX 940, to where it was during the 1999/2000 "parabolic blow-off" (35), what has to happen to earnings - without any price movement on the index at all.