Re: almost convinced (Another TA view)
posted on
Jun 05, 2008 04:22PM
e1,
Thanks for the E-wave analysis. Here are my thoughts on the share price action.
As you mentioned. the all time high of SGR is 2.25 (May 11 2006). The highest close though is at $2.06. So based on that, we should see some resistance around the $2.00 mark as the all time high is tested.
My guess is that we will bounce around the $2.00 mark in the next few days and weeks. We could see some long term shares held since May 2006 free up and hold the price down. In the next days & weeks the corresponding news will be those pending assay results from Hinge #4, but also we could be surprised with more positive drill results from the second phase of deep drilling (last drill results Feb 26th). So we have the first news (hinge#4) that pushes us up over $2.00 and then we retreat to the mid/high $1.70 range. Then, more news (positive phase II deep drilling) and that sends us back to the $2.00 range.
Now at $2.00 a second time more congestion, and some folks will smell a double top and sell, but wait, we get our new 43-101 resources estimate and more drill results, and we move well above $2.00. If you picture this, you will see that I've just described a cup and handle formation. Looking at Yahoo charts, you can't see it on a 2yr chart, you need to look at the 5yr chart.
So that's how I'm positioning my self: Sell all trading shares around $2.00 and then buy them back at under $1.80. Then enjoy the ride to $3.00. (From bottom of cup ~$1.00 to top of rim + $1 ($2 + $1 = $3.00).
-Alex