Re: From the Cafe....
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 16, 2008 05:17PM
San Gold Corporation - one of Canada's most exciting new exploration companies and gold producers.
I really enjoyed that article and it reminds me that we have seen this occur before, where just as the last exasperated shareholder capitulates to sell their remaining shares and right when sentiment is at the lowest, a slow and almost imperceivable change in sentiment occurs. I can't recall a time when I have seen sentiment this low and when so many hard core PM bulls are frustrated and questioning their commitment to the junior sector. This is all usually a definite sign that a bottom is in even though our emotions force us to view it differently, especially given the fundamentals.
At this point, I personally don't think it will take that much to change sentiment since we are at a point with most juniors that is equivalent to squeezing water out of a stone. There is simply nothing left to give. The selling has dried up, yet that is difficult to acknowledge when the buying has dried up even more. Only when the new buying occurs will we see the impact it will have on the lack of sellers, similar to what occurred in late 2005 early 2006 .
I also expect many junior miner shareholders to sell their shares on the way up as the share prices approach the previous highs set many months ago, mistakenly believing that will be close to a top. That was short sighted back in early 2006 and will undoubtedly repeat itself this time around. IMO, given the length of this consolidation in the juniors, once the old highs are taken out the share prices will begin an accent that may surprise even the most optimistic of PM bulls. JMHO