Here's the kicker. Look at one year LME and see what happened to it. The intraday ups and downs over 30 days or 60 days are nothing. Look at the inventory built in one year and see where it's at. Has it lessened significantly?

Now look at the price as inventory built up and stabilized. Keep in mind we now see demand lessening with shrinking growth in industialized countries. The US slackening is now said to be spilling over into Asian economies now. As you say we are also have the problem compounded by increasing supply. Albeit by those who are low cost producers. With shrinking Ni prices there will be a make or nreak point for producers. We have seen the start of some mines closing already.

Energy has the biggest impact on processing costs. Look at how the price of sulphur has risen dramatically. Laterite ores require suplhur like it's going out of style.

What we don't have a graph for is demand. Thats the other part of this equation for showing why we are where we are with price.

Nickel, lead and zinc are all the most bearish of the base metals.