OR

Was my timing off (hahaha)?

I bought my first RVX shares in March of 2010 when shares were trading at $6.50+. So I’ve been in this play for 13+ years and watched the share price erode from $6.50+ to $.14 in spite of significant scientific successes, although various trials have failed due to being statistically under-powered (an issue of underfunding I believe).

My current thinking is that I was 15 to 16 years too early in my investment. Why?

1. The BoM2 trail will figure out it’s funding in the next year.
2. The trial design will be finalized and approved by the FDA in 1 to 2 years or less.
3. The trial will probably last 3 to 5 years.

Therefore, for those investors that have the time to let their money sit idle for 5 years and can buy in significant volume at these bargain basement prices currently, there is some chance of collecting a significant gain.

And, lots could happen along the way.

• A new funding partner could result in an impact on the share price positive or negative.
• The nature of the funding could have a dramatic impact – CVR, leading BP, significant private partner that can restructure and carry the trial through to success.
• There could be a change in management…a new CEO???

Why do I believe apabetalone will eventually successful?

1. Very early trials showed hope, even the underpowered trial on reverse cholesterol transport showed promise.
2. The BOM trail achieved a p=0.06 level…almost p=0.05 as required. A better trial design with proper pwer will succeed.
3. Post trial analysis has been very positive in terms of understanding and validating the science of apabetalone and it is all positive.
4. New trial designs (as we’ve seen) will be more optimal in terms of patient selection and statistical design.
5. The FDA “break through designation” may lead to quicker drug approval as the trial progresses particularly if they conduct a futility analysis.
6. High profile, successful, independent scientists are willing to be on the steering committees.
7. The number of indications that BET inhibitors (and specifically apabetalone) address is very long and impressive.
8. Independent scientific interest seems high.
9. Apabetalone's safety profile is proven and excellent.

There were many, obvious in hind-sight, issues I didn’t contemplate and which any prudent investor would have considered before jumping into this stock. Such as;

• the competence of management
• the ability, or not, of management to raise sufficient funding for properly powered trials
• the time horizons
• cannibalism – the idea that BPs could perceive apabetalone as a threat to their own portfolios (not sure I believe this one)
• the competitiveness of the CVD segment in terms of perceived alternatives to apabetalone

Questions

1. Why has Hepa been so passive on things like Covid and CVD trials? They could be initiating their own trials in China and other regions?
2. Why isn’t Eastern actively supporting RVX? They did not even participate in the last BOD vote.
3. Why is Don still in the top 3 positions (COB, President, CEO) at both companies? Other than being a cofounder, what magic is allowing him so much power and control in spite of the fact that over my 13 years I have never seem any evidence of a high level of competence or strategic insight? It is a mystery.

The answers to these questions I’ll never know. The general impression I get is that in order for Don to have retained this power, given such an abysmal state of affairs, is that he is communicating some secret vision or plan to all of these insider investors that have convinced all of them over many years to put in their money, at least once.

• Eastern put the breaks on once the Citi loan was paid. Hepa came in new and green and seemed very active for a while with things like the first right of refusal on the USA (which I don’t believe was renewed).

Ever since the BoM failure the ability to raise funds for a properly funded BoM2 has stalled with the Covid fiasco taking attention away from the core scientific concept and promise.

I can’t image ORI or it’s equivalent at ZCC putting up with a complete lack of progress much longer. Management will surely change at the upper levels in a couple of years unless Don pulls a rabbit out of a hat.

Just rambling again and trying to clear my head on why such incredible assets are being squandered so badly.

GLTA - We'll need it because good business practices or strategic genius is not going to happen.   :)

Toinv