Re: RVX End Game
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 16, 2020 02:18AM
We know from the June 22 PR that:
a) there will be a BoM2;
b) the FDA is on board;
c) there are 'partnership discussions ongoing'.
So, the big question is 'what is the nature of these partnership discussions and how will they impact the current structure of RVX'?
Any partner isn't just going to pony up a bunch of money and agree to fund BoM2 just because they have this altruistic notion that this needs to happen for the betterment of mankind. No, they are doing it because they expect to make money that will ultimately further fuel the value of their own stock.
There are any number of ways to structure such a deal, but usually it would either involve a significant dilution of the existing stock to accommodate the new participant; or, an existing shareholder(s) has to give up some (and likely significant) chunk of their own stock. My guess is the latter scenario because both Hepalink and Eastern have little choice if they want to see this thing through. The failure of BoM to achieve statistical significance has diminished their leverage...period.
As for the Ori debenture, forget about it. The materiality of that transaction has been minimized with the subsequent BTD and FDA events and that loan will be paid off as part of the negotiations with the new 'partner'. And, if they have to extend the 12 month timeline for some reason, they will.
What I can't figure out is that with all this news over the past 10 months or so, and the significantly de-risked nature of the positive impact(s) of apabetalone going forward......why is this stock trading at this crazy low price of $C0.75??? I would think that any partnership deal would have to generate something a whole lot better than that, and that's what I'm waiting for.
So yes, the next few months could be very interesting indeed.